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   Aquaculture 2004 - Meeting Abstract
531

linear programming analysis of optimal production strategies for catfish Ictalurus punctatus farms
 
Steeve Pomerleau* and Carole Engle
Aquaculture/Fisheries Center
University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff
P.O. Box 4912
1200 N. University Drive
Pine Bluff, AR 71601
spomerleau@uaex.edu


A 2-year linear programming model was developed to determine the optimal production strategy that maximizes net returns of a catfish farm. The model's matrix was composed of 1,467 activities and 606 constraints. Activities included the choice of stocking different sizes of fingerling in growout ponds for multiple-batch production or stocking them at higher densities for the production of different sizes of stockers. Fingerlings could be purchased or produced on-farm from purchased fry. Stockers could be grown to market size in single-batch production. Stockers could be harvested and stocked for growout at any month throughout the growing season. The model was subject primarily to pond balance and fish balance constraints. The matrix's coefficients were adapted from the results of a series of pond studies conducted at the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff on fingerling and stocker production and growout.
The model selected strategy 1 (Table 1) as the profit maximizing strategy (including final inventory value). On the first year, strategy 1 allocated 95% of the farm water-area to growout and 5% to 13-g fingerling production, which were stocked in growout ponds the second year. On the second year, fingerling production was replaced by stocker production because it increased the value of the final inventory. However, options selected in Year 1 would be better indicator of the long-term optimal strategy for a catfish farm. Options selected in Year 2 (the last year of the model) are bias towards increasing sales and fish inventory without considering the impact it may have on the following years of production. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was robust to large variations in financial variables. However, Strategy 2 (Table 1) was selected at lower ranges of discounting rates, feed prices, and fry prices. Strategy 3 (Table 1) was selected at high foodfish prices and the lowest ranges of discounting rates, feed prices, and fingerling prices.




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